Introduction to Projections

A successful organization:

1. Must have sound fiscal management

2. Manages enrollment & projections to ensure their contract is fully maximized

Reference

Fiscal Handbook: Child Care Fiscal Handbook

Gather

When preparing an enrollment & projections plan, you must gather the following information:

Contract

• Program Type

• Maximum Reimbursable Amount (MRA)

• Provider Budget

• Minimum Days of Operation (MDO)

Predict

• Interest Revenue

• Family Fee Revenue

• Average Child Cost

• Average Drop Rate

Plan

There are many worksheets out there that programs use to create an enrollment & projections plan.

To show what should be considered when planning enrollment & projections we will be using Monarch Link’s sample workbook that is built for the California Family Child Care Home Education Network (CFCC Contracts).

For the purpose of planning, within the worksheet the TEAL COLOR CELLS are inputted AND adjusted as changes occur, while the SALMON COLOR CELLS are updated monthly.

Enter data into Program Overview section for each program.

EXAMPLE:

TOTAL BUDGET:

Contract MRA: Contract Maximum Reimbursable Amount (MRA) is $3,779,550

Family Fees: Based on predicted fees, the projected family fees are $20,225

Interest: Predicting to receive $500 of interest (amount of interest received from program funds sitting in the bank account)

PROVIDER BUDGET:

Provider Budget: Total Budget x 70% = Provider Payment Budget

$3,800,275 (Total Budget) x 70% = $2,660,193 (Total Provider Payments)

MINIMUM DAYS OF OPERATION:

Day of Operation: A day in which the contractor’s administrative office is open for business.

Minimum Days of Operation (MDO): MDO of 246 was determined by the annual service calendar & included on contract face sheet.

Next, we’ll need to determine the average child cost, child count and projected payments per month. Let’s walk through this.

EXAMPLE:

AVERAGE CHILD COST:

Based on prior year’s average child cost & takes into consideration months where children are expected to use more care

NOTE: Throughout the year, as you enter the actual provider payment paid out per month, you will start to build the average child cost history for the upcoming fiscal year.

Manage

In a typical year, it is important to complete monthly projections. It is not a good idea to wait until you receive the quarterly Earnings Projection Worksheet from the Department to see their projections.  

When you are over- or under-earning, you must respond quickly. By the time you can enroll 1 family up to 4 months may have gone by.

To manage projections, each month you will need to input the Actuals

For the purpose of managing projections, within the worksheet the SALMON COLOR CELLS must be updated monthly to determine if child enrollment needs adjusted

Actual Provider Payments: Actual total of payments made to providers

Actual Family Fees: For this fiscal year, input the total amount of family fees assessed. How much would you have received if fees were not waived?

Actual Enrollment Activity: Input the number of dropped & enrolled child

Actual Remaining Days: Input the days of operation remaining

Closely monitor provider payments, family fees & enrollment activity. When analyzing the projection worksheet, ask yourself?

1. Is the drop & enrollment counts on track?

2. Compare projected fees vs. actual fees. Are budgeted fees on track?

3. Based on expended provider payments, is the program short (under-earning/enrolled) or over (over-earning/enrolled)?

4. If under-earning/enrolled, how many more children do we need to enroll?

5. If over-earning/enrolled, can we afford to keep the current amount of children enrolled? Do we have a nice “cushion” to support any potential future under-earning/enrollment?

After reviewing the video lesson & sketch pad notes, it’s time to check for understanding by completing a Knowledge Check. Note that Individual Knowledge Checks will conclude with a Certificate.

Individual Knowledge Check (ProProfs) >

Group Knowledge Check (Kahoot!) >