Introduction to Projections

A successful organization:

1. Must have sound fiscal management

2. Manages enrollment & projections to ensure their contract is fully maximized

Reference

Fiscal Handbook: Child Care Fiscal Handbook

Gather

When preparing an enrollment & projections plan, you must gather the following information:

Contract

• Maximum Reimbursable Amount (MRA)

• Contract Rate (Per-Child Reimbursement)

• Minimum Days of Operation (MDO)

Predict

• Interest Revenue

• Family Fee Revenue

• Average Vacancy Rate

• Center | FCCHEN Capacity

Plan

There are many worksheets out there that programs use to create an enrollment & projections plan.

To show what should be considered when planning enrollment & projections we will be using Monarch Link’s sample General Child Care or State Migrant worksheet. The workbook includes a sample projection enrollment plan spreadsheet, followed by an adjustment factor reference worksheet applicable through February 29th and another effective March 1st.

In the event that the contractor serves children in multiple counties AND the different counties have a different Contract Rate, then separate program worksheets will be needed.

For the purpose of planning, within the worksheet the TEAL COLOR CELLS are inputted AND adjusted as changes occur

Enter data into Program Overview section for each program type & if applicable each county.

EXAMPLE:

TOTAL FUNDS:

Contract MRA: Contract Maximum Reimbursable Amount (MRA) is $2,834,664

Family Fees: Based on predicted fees, the projected family fees are $55,000

Interest: Predicting to receive $0 of interest (amount of interest received from program funds sitting in the bank account)

VACANCY RATE VALUE:

Vacancy Rate: Based on history of target enrollment compared to actual enrollment numbers, this program has a 3% vacancy rate

When space sits open, agency is not earning funds during this time period. If this value is not taken into consideration, an agency will under earn the contract. Target vacancy rate should not exceed 2-5%

Since this year is a hold harmless year and service earnings will not impact your reimbursement, it is totally safe to have a 0% vacancy value.

It is important to leave this on your projection worksheet as it will be needed in the future. Between now and then, you are creating a vacancy rate history that can be used later on to project the vacancy rate.

FTE CHILD COUNT:

Contract Rate: Based on contract, the Contract Rate is $54.93

Minimum Days of Operation (MDO): MDO of 246 was determined by the annual service calendar & included on contract

Number of child days of enrollment (cde):
(Total Funds $2,889,664 + Vacancy Rate Value $0)/Contract Rate $54.93 = FTE cdes 52,606

Number of daily FTE children:
FTE cdes 52,606/ MDO 246 = FTE Child Count 214

Next, determine the composition of where children will be served, adjustment factors, child counts & the days of operation. Let’s walk through this.

EXAMPLE:

SITE INFO:

Look at each available classroom or family child care home, what the capacity is & what age group you will be putting in each classroom or for the FCCHEN.

Make enrollment targets for each classroom or for the FCCHEN.

If you will be co-mingling any of the classrooms with Head Start only children or private pay children, be sure to take into consideration too

ADJUSTMENT FACTORS & CHILD COUNT:

Analyze the certified schedule of enrollment for each child according to the Application for Services.

Based on the analysis record the Child Count AND Adjustment Factor based on:

• Age

• Time-base category

• Special Circumstance

DAYS OF OPERATION:

For each row input the total days of operation per month children plan to be served within the applicable category

NOTE: The total cde for each row/category is automatically calculated as follows:

(Total Days of Operation x Adjustment Factor) x Child Count = cde Total

Manage

In a typical year, it is important to complete monthly projections. It is not a good idea to wait until you receive the quarterly Earnings Projection Worksheet from the Department to see their projections.  

When you are over- or under-earning, you must respond quickly. By the time you can enroll 1 family up to 4 months may have gone by.

To manage projections, each month you will need to input the Actuals

For the purpose of managing projections, within the worksheet the SALMON COLOR CELLS must be updated monthly to determine if child enrollment needs adjusted

Actual cde: Input actual cde based on attendance reports

Actual Family Fees: For this fiscal year, input the total amount of family fees assessed. How much would you have received if fees were not waived?

Actual Remaining Days: Input the days of operation remaining

Closely monitor actual earnings (cde), vacancy rate & family fees. When analyzing the projection worksheet, ask yourself?

1. Compare the percent of projected vs actual cde earned. Is the vacancy rate on track?

2. Compare projected fees vs. actual fees. Are budgeted fees on track?

3. Is the program short (under-earning/enrolled) or over (over-earning/enrolled) the contract based on cde?

4. If under-earning/enrolled, how many more children do we need to enroll?

5. If over-earning/enrolled, can we afford to keep the current amount of children enrolled? Do we have a nice “cushion” to support any potential future under-earning/enrollment?

After reviewing the video lesson & sketch pad notes, it’s time to check for understanding by completing a Knowledge Check. Note that Individual Knowledge Checks will conclude with a Certificate.

Individual Knowledge Check (ProProfs) >

Group Knowledge Check (Kahoot!) >