Introduction to
Projections

A successful organization:

1. Must have sound fiscal management

2. Does not spend more than they will earn

3. Manages enrollment & projections to ensure their contract is fully maximized

Reference

Fiscal Handbook: Enrollment, Attendance, & Fiscal Reporting, & Reimbursement Procedures for Early Education Contracts

Gather

When preparing an enrollment & projections plan, you must gather the following information:

Contract

• Program Type

• Maximum Reimbursable Amount (MRA)

• Contract Rate (Per-Child Reimbursement)

• Minimum Days of Operation (MDO)

Predict

• Interest Revenue

• Family Fee Revenue

• Average Vacancy Rate

• Center Capacity

Plan

There are various worksheets out there that programs use to create an enrollment & projections plan.

To show what should be considered when planning enrollment & projections we will be using Monarch Link’s sample State Preschool Workbook.

In the event that the contractor serves children in multiple counties AND the different counties have a different Contract Rate, then separate program worksheets will be needed.

For the purpose of planning, within the worksheet the TEAL COLOR CELLS are inputted AND adjusted as changes occur

Enter data into Program Overview section for each program type & if applicable each county.

EXAMPLE:

TOTAL FUNDS:

Contract MRA: Contract Maximum Reimbursable Amount (MRA) is $2,834,664

Family Fees: Based on predicted fees, the projected family fees are $75,000

Interest: Predicting to receive $0 of interest (amount of interest received from program funds sitting in the bank account)

VACANCY RATE VALUE:

Vacancy Rate: Based on history of target enrollment compared to actual enrollment numbers.

Since this fiscal year is a hold harmless year and service earnings will not impact your reimbursement, it’s safe to have a 0% vacancy value.

Between now and then, vacancy rate history is being developed that later will be used to determine the vacancy rate.

FTE CHILD COUNT:

Contract Rate: Based on contract, the Contract Rate is $55.27

Minimum Days of Operation (MDO): MDO of 246 was determined by the annual service calendar & included on contract

Full-Time Equivalent (FTE): 1 FTE is equal to a 4 years or older child certified for 25 or more hours per week

Number of child days of enrollment (cde):
(Total Funds $2,909,664 + Vacancy Rate Value $0)/Contract Rate $55.27 = FTE cdes 52,645

Number of daily FTE children:
FTE cdes 52,645/ MDO 246 = FTE Child Count 214

EXCEPTIONAL NEEDS SET-ASIDE:

To determine how many exceptional needs children at a minimum are needed. The exceptional needs child days of enrollment of 2,564 are divided by the minimum days of operation 246, which gives us a total of 10.4 children. Since you cannot serve part of a child, the formula is built to always round up. In this example a minimum of 11 full-time exceptional need children must be enrolled at all times to meet the 5% set-aside.

Next, determine the composition of where children will be served, adjustment factors, child counts & the days of operation. Let’s walk through this.

EXAMPLE:

SITE INFO:

Look at each available classroom, what the capacity is & what age group you will be putting in each classroom.

Make enrollment targets for each classroom.

If you will be co-mingling any of the classrooms with Head Start only children or private pay children, be sure to take into consideration too

ADJUSTMENT FACTORS & CHILD COUNT:

Analyze the certified schedule of enrollment for each child according to the Application for Services.

Based on the analysis record the Child Count AND Adjustment Factor based on:

• Age

• Time-Base Category

• Special Circumstance

DAYS OF OPERATION:

For each row input the total days of operation per month children plan to be served within the applicable category

NOTE: The total cde for each row/category is automatically calculated as follows:

(Total Days of Operation x Adjustment Factor) x Child Count = cde Total

Manage

In a typical year, it is important to complete monthly projections. It is not a good idea to wait until you receive the quarterly Earnings Projection Worksheet from the Department to see their projections.  

When you are over- or under-earning, you must respond quickly. By the time you can enroll 1 family up to 4 months may have gone by.

To manage projections, each month you will need to input the Actuals

For the purpose of managing projections, within the worksheet the PEACH COLOR CELLS must be updated monthly to determine if child enrollment needs adjusted

Actual cde: Input actual cde based on attendance reports

Actual Family Fees: For this fiscal year, input the total amount of family fees assessed. How much would you have received if fees were not waived?

Actual Remaining Days: Input the days of operation remaining

Closely monitor actual earnings (cde), vacancy rate & family fees. When analyzing the projection worksheet, ask yourself?

1. Compare the percent of projected vs actual cde earned. Is the vacancy rate on track?

2. Compare projected fees vs. actual fees. Are budgeted fees on track?

3. Is the program short (under-earning/enrolled) or over (over-earning/enrolled) the contract based on cde?

4. If under-earning/enrolled, how many more children do we need to enroll?

5. If over-earning/enrolled, can we afford to keep the current amount of children enrolled? Do we have a nice “cushion” to support any potential future under-earning/enrollment?

After reviewing the video lesson & sketch pad notes, it’s time to check for understanding by completing a Knowledge Check. Note that Individual Knowledge Checks will conclude with a Certificate.

Individual Knowledge Check (ProProfs) >

Group Knowledge Check (Kahoot!) >